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Gas +17%, Air Cargo +60% After Iran Strikes
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U.S. strikes on Iran are quickly spilling into the domestic economy. Fuel prices, bond yields, and freight costs are rising while markets face renewed volatility just months before the 2026 midterm elections.
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KEY NUMBERS
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- $3.39 per gallon — gasoline jumped roughly $0.30 overnight at some U.S. stations.
- 14–17% diesel spike — Midwest diesel prices climbed to $4.40–$4.50 per gallon in a week.
- 60% air-freight surge — Asia–U.S. cargo rates jumped as Gulf logistics routes were disrupted.
- −92,000 jobs — February employment decline signaled a cooling labor market.
- 45% of Americans — share saying support for the war would weaken if fuel prices rise.
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WHAT IT MEANS
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The conflict introduces an inflation channel through energy and logistics costs. Rising Treasury yields have already pushed mortgage rates back toward ~6%, reversing part of the recent housing relief. **If the conflict disrupts oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz for an extended period, energy-driven inflation risk increases materially.** Consumer sentiment and spending remain sensitive to gasoline prices, making fuel costs a key political and economic variable heading into the 2026 midterms.
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