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U.S. Economy Mixed in First Year: Jobs Lag, GDP 2.2%
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Headline indicators show low unemployment and modest inflation, but job creation and housing remain weak and the trade deficit hit record levels.
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KEY NUMBERS
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- 181,000 jobs added in 2025 — weakest non-recession year in 20+ yrs
- 4.3% unemployment rate through early 2026
- 2.4% annual inflation rate
- 2.2% GDP growth in 2025
- $1.241T goods-trade deficit — record high
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WHAT IT MEANS
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Key macro indicators show the U.S. economy continued growing but with uneven momentum. Job creation underperformed expectations while unemployment stayed historically low, partly due to a smaller labor force. Inflation remained moderate, supporting purchasing power, and the stock market climbed significantly. However, persistent housing affordability challenges and a record goods-trade deficit underscore underlying structural weaknesses. These mixed outcomes present both opportunities and headwinds for policy and markets.
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Read the Full Report →
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